Seiya Baba: Top-Quartile Tackler, Now Fighting for Minutes (#011)
Words & data analysis | Choi Bong-jin (Far Post Analytics operator)
Scouting Report #011 · Centre-back · Kashiwa Reysol. 74.3 on Sillok Score v2 from a full 2024 J1 season at Consadole Sapporo (2,983 minutes), 12th of 94 J1 defenders. Since moving to Kashiwa he has mostly come off the bench. Verdict: MONITOR.
Data: API-Football · 2024 J1 season (Sillok Score v2, calculated 30 September 2026); Football LAB, 2026/27 season current through the 21 September 2026 update
Key takeaways
- Baba scored 74.3 on Sillok Score v2 in our 2024 J1 data, 12th of 94 scored J1 defenders, over 2,983 minutes in 37 appearances for Consadole Sapporo.
- The score rests on tackles (1.75 per 90, 87.5th percentile) and key passes (0.91 per 90, 83.0th percentile). Interceptions (1.15 per 90) sit near the middle of the pool.
- His role has shrunk since a June 2025 move to Kashiwa Reysol: 221 minutes in 2026/27 so far, two starts, both at centre-back.
- Verdict: MONITOR. The 2024 profile is built on a large sample, but it is two seasons old and he is not currently a regular starter.
Seiya Baba is a centre-back at Kashiwa Reysol, born on 24 October 2001. He came through three J2 seasons at Tokyo Verdy, moved to Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo for 2023, and played almost every minute of Sapporo’s 2024 J1 season: 37 appearances and 2,983 minutes in our data.
That season is the one this report scores. On Sillok Score v2 he finished at 74.3, 12th of the 94 J1 defenders we could score. Unlike most of the young profiles we cover, this is not a small-sample number. Almost 3,000 minutes is a full season’s worth of evidence.
A note on the club label
Our player database lists Baba under Kashiwa Reysol, because the roster was collected after he changed clubs in June 2025. Every 2024 figure in this report comes from his season at Sapporo. We flag this because a scout cross-checking our numbers against Kashiwa’s 2024 squad would otherwise find nothing.
What drives the score
Defender scores use three per-90 metrics. Percentiles compare him with J1 defenders who played at least 450 minutes in 2024.
| Metric | Per 90 | Percentile (J1 DF) | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tackles | 1.75 | 87.5 | 0.40 | 35.0 |
| Key passes | 0.91 | 83.0 | 0.25 | 20.8 |
| Interceptions | 1.15 | 53.1 | 0.35 | 18.6 |
| Sillok Score v2 | 74.3 |
Reading the profile
The shape is a front-foot defender. He wins the ball by engaging, not by reading passing lanes: his tackle rate is in the top eighth of J1 defenders, while his interception rate is roughly average. That split matters for fit. A side that defends high and wants its centre-backs to step out will value the first number. A side that sits deeper and relies on positioning will care more about the second.
The key-pass figure is unusual for a centre-back. Thirty passes that led to a shot across the season is a rough signal that he could play forward, not a full measure of build-up quality. API-Football does not give us progressive passes or pass completion, so we cannot say more than that. He averaged 49.0 passes per 90.
Outside the score, he contested 10.1 duels per 90 and won 4.9 of them, a 47.9% win rate. That is not a dominant duelling profile. We would not sell him as an aerial centre-back on this data, and our dataset has no aerial-duel split to check either way.
One piece of context cuts against the tackle numbers. Sapporo were relegated at the end of 2024. Defenders in a struggling side often face more defensive situations, which can lift raw tackle volume. Per-90 rates do not correct for how much a team defends. We cover this effect in How to read defensive metrics, and it is a reason to watch him in a stronger side before trusting the 87.5.
Where he stands now
After Sapporo’s relegation he started 2025 in J2, with nine league appearances (633 minutes), before Kashiwa signed him permanently in June 2025. He made ten J1 appearances for Kashiwa in the rest of 2025 (573 minutes).
In the 2026 special season (J.League Centennial Vision League) he made 13 appearances, six of them starts, for 547 minutes. In the 2026/27 season, as of Football LAB’s 21 September update, he has seven appearances from eight rounds, two of them starts, for 221 minutes. Both starts were at centre-back, against Yokohama F. Marinos (68 minutes) and Machida Zelvia (90 minutes). Four of his five substitute appearances lasted ten minutes or fewer.
In the similarity run for Report #010, Baba was one of the closest statistical profiles to FC Tokyo’s Kashif Bangnagande (similarity 80.0). Both score mainly through tackling, which is a useful pairing for a club comparing ball-winning defenders.
How this report was built
We convert every metric to per 90 minutes and exclude players under 450 minutes from rankings. Defender scores weight tackles (0.40), interceptions (0.35) and key passes (0.25). Age is shown but never enters the score. We did not use our transfer-probability model, because our transfer-case sample is still too small to guide a scouting decision. Scores are versioned (Sillok Score v2), and this one was calculated on 30 September 2026.
Verdict: MONITOR
This is a monitoring note, not a recommendation to travel. The 2024 profile is solid and well-sampled: a ball-winning centre-back with some forward passing. But it was produced in a relegated team, it is two seasons old, and he has not held a starting place since moving to Kashiwa. He turns 25 this month, which is older than the profile most overseas clubs target from Japan.
What would change the verdict: a run of starts at centre-back for Kashiwa, and his 2026/27 minutes passing 900, so that a current-season sample can confirm or overturn the 2024 tackling numbers in a stronger side.
We will review this assessment on 8 December 2026 and record the result on our Track Record page whichever way it goes.
Assessed 8 October 2026 by Choi Bong-jin, Far Post Analytics.
Caveats and limitations
- Data vintage: the score uses API-Football 2024 J1 statistics only. His 2025, 2026 special season and 2026/27 minutes do not enter it.
- Small sample: his 2026/27 minutes (221) are far below our 900-minute threshold, so the current season cannot yet confirm or contradict the 2024 profile.
- Team context: Sapporo were relegated in 2024. Per-90 defensive rates do not adjust for how much a team has to defend, which can inflate tackle volume.
- Key passes for defenders count passes that lead to a shot. They are a rough signal of forward passing, not a full measure of build-up play. Our dataset has no progressive-pass, pass-completion or aerial-duel data.
Frequently asked questions
Is Seiya Baba a starter at Kashiwa Reysol this season?
Not yet. As of Football LAB's 21 September update he has seven J1 appearances in 2026/27, two of them starts, for 221 minutes. Both starts were at centre-back.
Why does a 74.3 score not mean a WATCH verdict?
The score describes his 2024 season at Sapporo. A WATCH verdict needs current evidence that the profile still holds, and his 2026/27 minutes are too few to provide it. MONITOR means the profile is worth tracking until that evidence exists.
Which club did Baba play for in 2024?
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo. He moved to Kashiwa Reysol permanently in June 2025. Our player database shows Kashiwa because the roster was collected after the move.
Is he likely to move abroad?
We do not publish transfer probabilities, because our sample of transfer cases is still too small. This report is a scouting note, not a prediction of a move.
Sources and disclosure
- API-Football, 2024 season statistics (used for the Sillok Score v2 calculation on 30 September 2026)
- Football LAB player page: 2026/27 match log (updated 21 September 2026), 2026 special season totals (updated 29 June 2026) and season history
- Goal Japan, 7 June 2025: report of Kashiwa Reysol’s permanent signing of Baba from Consadole Sapporo, including Sapporo’s 2024 relegation
Sources last verified October 8, 2026
Data sources and season coverage are stated within each article; where a report carries its own sources section, that section governs. Ages are as of data collection. Per-90 metrics are our own calculations, and the smaller a player's minutes sample, the wider the margin of error. Every number here is a starting point for scouting — never a substitute for it.
✍️ Choi Bong-jin
Operator of Far Post Analytics. I analyze scouting data for the J.League and Asian football. My goal is to find the next transfer-market star where Europe isn't looking.
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